Voter ignorance and the 2010 midterm elections
In an episode on voter ignorance, Bob Zadek raised the 2010 midterm elections as a case in which economic policy was probably the most important issue before voters. The recession, which he called the so-called Great Recession, had been going on for three years or more, and Obama’s stewardship over the economy was being called into question. Zadek asked how voters could possibly decide such an issue when economists with doctoral degrees profoundly disagree about the proper economic policies to follow, whether a Keynesian approach of heavy government spending to boost the economy or an approach of less regulation, lower taxes, and more money to the private sector. Is America Doomed by Voter Ignorance? (2013)
Ilya Somin responded that it is certainly true that it is impossible for voters to know as much as economists do, but that the data show they do not even know extremely basic things that even non-economists can easily find out or understand. In the 2010 election, two-thirds of the public at that time did not realize that the economy was actually growing as opposed to shrinking. Somin said that by itself is not perhaps enough to tell you what the right economic policy is, but is at least a very valuable piece of information to help understand that debate. Is America Doomed by Voter Ignorance? (2013)
Somin added that there are some issues that even the most sophisticated experts disagree about, but that majority public opinion is often wrong about a wide range of issues where even most experts, liberal, conservative, and otherwise, tend to agree. He gave free trade as an example: economists overwhelmingly agree that free trade is good for the overall economy, but the voters, not quite as overwhelmingly but still a majority, historically almost always disagree and tend to be protectionist. He also said voters in many surveys tend to be very pessimistic about the impact of technology on the economy, worrying that new technological developments will harm the economy because they throw people out of work, whereas economists on both the right and the left overall have almost the opposite view. Is America Doomed by Voter Ignorance? (2013)
The 2008 election as a referendum on economic theory
In a later episode on capitalism and morality, Bob Zadek returned to the Great Recession through the 2008 presidential election. He said that when Obama was first elected, the US economy was in decline—not permanent decline, but was suffering—and the question before the voters was how to fix the economy. More or less, the question was whether the government should adopt the approach of John Maynard Keynes, which was extensive government spending, spend our way out of the Great Recession, or should it be a less aggressive monetary approach, let businesses fail, let the market find an equilibrium, and then grow out of it on its own. Capitalism and Morality: Twin Pillars of the West (2017)
Zadek said that then-candidate Obama promised a Keynesian approach—spend, spend, spend, spend our way out of the recession—and he won. Zadek argued that voters were being asked to vote on what economic theory made the most sense, that PhDs in economics profoundly disagree on that question, and that the American voter, not trained in economics, was voting on an economic system. He called it absurd and said voters are not informed enough—including himself—to vote on hyper-technical legal issues, but that was the vote. Capitalism and Morality: Twin Pillars of the West (2017)
Zadek drew an analogy to scientists in a laboratory testing to find a new compound as a medicine to cure a disease, with two tests and the need to figure out what the test results prove. He asked whether anybody would imagine putting that to a popular vote, and said of course not, the scientists have to decide, but yet putting it to a vote is democratic. He concluded that democracy has profound weaknesses in terms of decision-making in society, and that the country has far more democracy than the founders intended. Capitalism and Morality: Twin Pillars of the West (2017)
Jayant Bhandari agreed and added that when America became independent, not everyone had the right to vote, and only a minority of people had the right to vote. He said that today, 18-year-old kids who do not have any understanding whatsoever about public policy, who have never generated wealth in their lives, have the right to vote, and that they go to the streets, protest, want free money for their education, and want other people to give them free money. Because they vote, their protests are listened to by politicians. Capitalism and Morality: Twin Pillars of the West (2017)
The Great Recession as an economically caused downturn
In a 2020 episode on the future of lending after COVID-19, Bob Zadek compared the pandemic downturn to past crashes and recessions. He said the only comparable previous recession, depression, or decline is probably the Great Depression, not in terms of magnitude, but because the present economic problem is created not by the economy itself, not by any financial event, but by totally external factors, that is the virus. The Future of Lending after COVID-19 (2020)
Zadek then turned to what he called the Great Recession of 2007, 2008—a term he said he does not like to use because he does not think it is descriptive. He said that was a recession caused by economic factors, albeit governmental economic factors, and that it was failures in the economy and in the marketplace that caused the Great Recession. He said the same with the recession in the late 1980s, where the economy itself was a contributing factor. The Future of Lending after COVID-19 (2020)
By contrast, Zadek said, with COVID-19 the economy was as robust as anybody can remember, and an existential factor, the virus, a non-economic factor, invited itself to the economic party and everything turned for the worse for the minute. He said that distinction will come up again and again during the conversation because it will dictate how fast the recovery is and what the lessons, both economic and governmental, are from the crisis. The Future of Lending after COVID-19 (2020)
Asked about comparisons to the Spanish Flu, Zadek said he did not have a lot of firsthand knowledge on the Spanish Flu, but that the Spanish Flu was much more pervasive, killed many more people, and that medical science was obviously far inferior to what it is today. He said there is not much to be learned economically from the experience of the Spanish Flu. The Future of Lending after COVID-19 (2020)
Across episodes: the Great Recession as a recurring reference point
The Great Recession appears in three episodes, but the excerpts do not show a single question argued through to a changed conclusion. In the 2013 episode, Ilya Somin uses the 2010 midterms and the public’s failure to know whether the economy was growing as evidence of voter ignorance, and Bob Zadek frames the 2010 election as a vote on economic policy that voters could not competently decide. In the 2017 episode, Zadek returns to the 2008 election and frames it as a referendum on Keynesian versus less aggressive monetary approaches, again arguing that voters lacked the technical competence to decide. In the 2020 episode, Zadek shifts to a different distinction—between the Great Recession of 2007–2008, which he says was caused by economic and governmental factors, and the COVID-19 downturn, which he attributes to an external, non-economic cause. The earlier treatment is advanced by Somin and Zadek; the later treatment is advanced by Zadek alone. The excerpts show no development of the earlier voter-ignorance argument in the later episode, only a different use of the same historical reference.
What the sources do not cover
The excerpts do not state the name of any bill, the holding of any case, or the amendment any case turned on in connection with the Great Recession. They do not give the founding date of any principle, the title or field of any person beyond what the labels state, or the ending of any sentence that breaks off. They do not describe the causes of the 2007–2008 recession beyond Zadek’s characterization of them as economic and governmental factors, and they do not give figures for unemployment, GDP contraction, or any other economic measure during the Great Recession.